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6 Responses to 'How long will it take for the dow to return to the 1400 hundred level or all time high?'

1. Paul M - December 5th, 2008 at 4:20 pm

   I think you meant 14,000.

2. jeff410 - December 6th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

   My guess is 3-4 years to make a new all-time high. After the 1987 crash it took about two years. It was not at an all-time high on the day of the crash.

3. betmoneyonit2 - December 10th, 2008 at 3:26 am

   1-5 years. There is no way of knowing, however, if democrats gain control of both the Congress and the Presidency it will not be in the cards for many, many years.

4. あややMAN♂ - December 10th, 2008 at 4:35 pm

   nominal terms 5 years, real terms 20 if we are lucky

5. Shlarin - December 13th, 2008 at 12:11 pm

   My guess is 8 years.. We’re in a secular bear market that started in 2000 and won’t be over until around 2016. There’s no scientific theory to prove this but the last two secular bear markets (1929-1945) and (1966- 1982) both lasted around 16 years.

   A secular bear market is a period of many years where the present value of yearly stock returns are negative and do not beat returns on cash in the bank. Compare this with secular bull markets where the long-term investor generally makes more money every year over the returns in his bank account.

   Keep in mind that bull markets can be present during secular bear markets.. however, they often are followed up by bear markets that erase most of their gains.

   During the last secular bear market (1966-1982), the DOW struggled to close above 1000. I think the all time high during this bear market was around 1040 or something which was made in 1973. This high was not exceeded until 1982, the transition to the secular bull market that lasted until 2000.

   Personally, I don’t this this secular bear market is as bad as that last one, as our long-term economic fundamentals are stronger (but very weak right now, obviously.) I still doubt we’ll see DOW 14000 any time soon and even if we do, it’ll be in a time of high inflation.

6. Ed Atun - December 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm

   2012, December..

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